Excel, Antony Green and ABC Insiders Poll of Polls gives…

With Antony Green’s Election Calculator and ABC Insiders Poll of Polls…

(Excluding this morning’s latest poll it has to be said).  It appears the Rudd2 has “won” the ALP 30 seats and put them right back in the game.  But looking at the state by state seat counts, and remembering these are compared not with the previous poll but the 2010 election.  Rudd2 is going to win 8 Qld seats, lose just 1 NSW seat, and hold all 4 Tas seats.  Any of these 3 outcomes not occur and it is an ALP loss. 

I don’t know about Qld, never lived there and it is (politically speaking) an odd conservative state – by which I mean the conservative side of politics doesn’t behave like the rest of the country.  But this seems pretty optimistic. 

NSW a 1 seat loss.  Maybe the electorate has the NSW ALP out of their system but I rather suspect not.  At state and machine level NSW ALP has been corrupt, criminal, and one of the worst periods of governance in a state which has a pretty sorry history (both brands).  I lived there for 35 years and cannot believe a poll which says ALP will NOT get a whack in that state.  First loss is presumably the ex speaker, ex health union official, ex hospitality specialist.  No other net loss in NSW beyond him? 

In Tas where I now live the state Labor/Green government is past its use by.  Local Deputy Premier is getting jeers and boos from many thousands at union organised pro-mining anti-green rallies.  The mood in Braddon at least (NW and West Coast Tas) is to punish ALP at a state level and I think there will be blow back on Sid Sidebottom federally.  I actually like him as a bloke, but I also like the high profile ex state pollie Brett Whiteley who is the Lib candidate.  Its pretty remarkable when the Greens can get only 20 career protestors to a rally and the AWU can get thousands of angry people fed up with the anti everything, and openly hostile to local ALP figures, at each of 3 different rallies in the region over the last few months. 

The local (Tas) view is all 4 seats are in play.  I wouldn’t expect the ALP to lose all but I think its farcical to suggest they won’t lose any. 

Rudd2 needs all 3 states to resolve as predicted any one of them going against him will wipe him out.
 I’ll analyse the latest poll later in the week.


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