48:52 2PP. Is this evidence of past the high water mark?

horse-racing-manager-2-december-2009-02With, as always, thanks to Antony Green’s election calculator http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2013/calculator/

The latest Newspoll Federal Poll (19th to 21st of July). Has the Coalition winning government with 83 seats, the ALP picking up 64 seats, and the 3 continuing “independents” being returned – Bob Katter in Kennedy Qld, Andrew Wilkie in Dension Tas, and Adam Bandt in Melb Vic.

It’s a gain of 4 seats in NSW, 3 seats in Vic, and 1 seat in Qld for the Coalition.
Factoring in retiring MPs and Capricornia Qld is still the ALPs by just 0.08% 2PP. The retiring Labor MP is Kirsten Livermore, who has held this seat since 1998. Capricornia covers Rockhampton to Mackay and includes inland major mining centres such as Collinsville, Moranbah, Dysart and Claremont. I have no specific knowledge of the electorate or indeed the 2013 candidates. Looking at the election results 1983 to 2010 Capricornia achieves an ALP 2PP vote 5-10% better than Qld on average.

An interesting seat to watch:
• The state results have been declining for the ALP at the last two state elections.
• In 2010 Family First polled 3.5% (up from 1.8%), and The Greens 5.5% (up from 3.0%).
• In 2013 Family First, The Greens, Katter’s Australia Party, and Palmer United Party are all standing candidates, against the ALP and LNP major parties.

It may (let me emphasise may), in hindsight, be past the high water mark for Kevin Rudd. An interesting dilemma for him to determine the most strategically useful date for the election. On declining polls, if that is what he now experiences, delaying or holding on will look more and more desperate.

My view, watch Rudd with respect to the G20 meeting, to see whether he has come back to be PM, or as I suspect, to spring board to a G20/UN role.


One thought on “48:52 2PP. Is this evidence of past the high water mark?

  1. Pingback: 48:52 2PP. Is this evidence of past the high water mark? « Journeyman

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