In a slightly different form this time. The graph shows the 2PP (in terms of ALP vote) and the seats in the Lower House (in terms of ALP seats). Remembering in a 150 seat house, then 76 seats are needed to govern in your own right (the Government traditionally loses one vote on the floor in providing the speaker).
Morgan is predicting an ALP government. Not convinced by Morgan generally as they do on occasion appear to get results quite different from other polling companies.
I’d be getting more comfortable to call past the honeymoon peak for Rudd 2.0
I would certainly NOT be rushing to an early poll based on Morgan numbers, but IF you think it is past the peak than soon seems better than later.
For the history buffs, this shows Gillard’s very obvious decline.