Some Tasmanian specific polling (ReachTEL) in today’s Sunday Examiner has confirmed what I have suspected for quite a while. 3 seats (Bass, Bradon, and Lyons) are polling as L-NP wins with Franklin too close to call, and Denison being an Andrew Wilkie return.
The polling is all 600+ per seat which gives a margin of error of <4% (at 95% confidence interval) and the 2PP is all at, or above, 54:46 (Lib:ALP).
Green vote down around a quarter, which suggests 3 Liberal, 2 ALP senators with the seat a runoff between ALP/Greens. – That is Lyn Thorpe (ALP) and Peter Whish-Wilson (The Greens) fighting for the final senate seat.
All the nationwide polling (at the moment) is suggesting no ALP losses in Tasmania (ReachTEL Tassie polling has it at -3), which makes the ALP further away from a victory than any of the national polls are predicting.