Kevin Rudd has achieved a dead cat bounce in Queensland. The latest nationwide poll from Newspoll gives meaningful data at a state level and allows an “election” to be more meaningfully modelled. As always thanks to Antony Green and his Election Calculator.
Up 3 in Qld with a swing to ALP, swings away everywhere else for down 15 and a net down of 12. The bounce seats of Longman, Forde, Brisbane in Qld. The dead cat seats of Hindmarsh in SA, Bass, Braddon in Tas, Deakin, Corangamite in Vic, and Kingsford Smith, Dobbell, Parramatta, Eden Monaro, Page, Reid, Banks, Lindsay, Robertson, Greenway in NSW.
Knowing Tasmanian and NSW better than other states this feels more “real” to me than some of the other commentary going around.
It is worth noting that the 3 wins to the ALP are 0.2%, 0.5% and 1.0% respectively which are really stretching the margin of error beyond confidence. The lowest 3 LNP seat WINS are 0.5%, 0.7% and 1.0% with Herbert Qld held on just 0.07% and Dawson Qld held on 0.3%. 8 of the LNP gains are on final margins of greater than 2.0%.
Shaping it another way there are (on this polling) 10 seats where the winning margin is less that 0.5% – 7 ALP and 3 LNP. Very much in play and far too close to call. Although at 7:3 that won’t be comfort to the ALP campaign strategists.
The insight into what Rudd2.0 and the ALP believe will be seeing which seats Kevin appears in between now and the 7th. If they believe the election is still up for grabs he will appear in LNP seats which are “winnable”, if he is more often in ALP held seats it will be about what they can save from the coming blood bath. As always with politicians listen to what they say, believe what they do.