ReachTEL have just released Tasmanian state polling by electorate, and it shows its time for the Premier Lara Giddings to chose her poison. ReachTEL is computerised phone polling of a little over 500 Tasmanians in each electorate.
EMRS Polling, which I much prefer, and is done by humans, have stopped releasing electorate by electorate data. EMRS if you’re reading, please please please can you release the data down to electorate level.
ReachTEL polling seems to have consistantly higher “other” vote than EMRS, but it is the higher “other” vote that makes this comming (March 2014) state election so interesting.
Tasmania’s Hare Clarke system has 5 members in each of the 5 electorates, elected in a system similar to Federal Senate seats. So how does this latest polling interact, with my voting model?…. Glad you asked.
The first 4 seats in each electorate are easy to determine, just 1 ALP member in each seat for 5, 2 Greens (Cassey O’Connor and Nick McKim), and the rest Liberals. So the Liberals win government (13 seats) with the final 5 seats still to be determined.
Interestingly the 5th seat in the two Hobart electorates goes pretty easily to the Libs – so now it’s ALP 5, Liberals 15, and The Greens 2 – with 3 seats up for grabs.
In the final 3 electorates the ALP finishes 3rd!!!!! That means ALP preferences will elect 3 Greens, or 3 Libs or some combination. So how will this now all play out? The ALP parliamentary members will know they need to win their party vote in the electorate (poor for “playing well together” – nod to Brenton Best). The Greens party room of 5 will be at 6s and 7s – so to speak. They want to say what a wonderful option they are, and how well the ALP/Green government has done for Tasmania (against any experience of a Tasmanian) to try and pick up ALP preferences.
On current polling its Liberals 15-18,
The Greens 2-5 with only the government ministers assured
ALP just 5 with no seat returning two ALP members.
The members of Parliament will have access to more detailed polling. None of it will be pretty – unless you’re a Liberal shadow minister itching for a job.